“China’s recovery is taking longer than expected, so Citi is pushing back its stock rebound forecasts”
April 7, 2023
“…Instead of June, Citi now expects it will now take until the end of September for the Hang Seng Index to reach 24,000, analysts said in a report Thursday. That’s about 18% above current levels. The Hang Seng Index closed at 20,331.20 on Thursday, up about 2.8% for the year so far…
Falling exports from slower growth in the U.S. and Europe is weighing on China’s economy, along with a slump in the massive real estate sector. Goldman Sachs credit strategy analysts said in a report Thursday they expect Chinese property developers’ high-yield default rate will be 19% this year.
That’s better than the 46.4% last year, but “still at an elevated level, reflecting the uncertain pace of recovery for the physical property market,” the report said…”
China is in worse shape than the U.S. That’s why they want the reserve currency but they’re not going to get it.