“Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100%…”
October 17, 2022
“The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update…
While the chance of a recession within 12 months has reached 100% under the model, the odds of a recession hitting sooner are also up. The model forecasts the likelihood of a recession within 11 months at 73%, up from 30%, and the 10-month probability rose to 25% from 0%.
The deterioration in the outlook was driven by a broad-based worsening in the economic and financial indicators used as inputs to the model, Bloomberg Economics found…”