“Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham says the stock market has a 70% chance of crashing—and it could be an epic burst like the 1929 crisis”
July 5, 2023
“A legendary investor whose expertise lies in major stock crashes says the market is heading towards a burst bubble, akin to the crises seen in 1929 and 2000… Grantham, estimated to be worth $1 billion himself, previously estimated an 85% likelihood that the stock market would crash but has since downgraded that to 70%….
In 1929 it was Black Thursday when $14 billion was wiped off the market in a single day, in 2000 the Nasdaq lost 76.81% of its value in less than two years and in 2021 it similarly took a 10% hit.
I can not stress how important this information is. These are examples of how long it takes for extreme crashes. A large chunk can happen in 1 day but the complete fallout can take around 2 years. What is my takeaway from this? If the market were to crash I would re-invest in them about 1 year and a half later. Of course this depends on the percentage of the market drop but that’s a ruff timeline for reinvestment.
On another topic, I said this before but I believe if the market were to crash it would be in 2024. All the riffraff over hyper inflation and death of the dollar is nonsense. That type of thing takes time and would not happen over night. The powers that be are not going to allow complete collapse of the monetary system without them having an escape route or an absolute advantage of the situation.