“U.S. Economy May Have Hit the Coronavirus Bottom”
April 24, 2020
“As the calendar turns to May, we’re likely to see a slow return of growth for some types of economic activity that were wiped out by the coronavirus shutdowns in March and April. That’s the good news. The bad news is, as we’ve seen in the oil industry this week, much of the economy remains tremendously oversupplied for likely levels of demand for the foreseeable future. That tug of war, and potential ripple effects, is likely to define the path forward for the economy during the next several months.
It’s easy to be fairly certain that some types of economic activity have already bottomed. After all, activity can’t drop below zero. OpenTable data shows that online restaurant reservation are down 100% because of the mandatory shuttering of sit-down dining. Early to mid-April may end up representing the trough for the parts of our day-to-day lives that were most affected by the shutdowns. Grocery stores and restaurant takeout, for example, may well see a modest uptick in traffic as they make safety-related changes and customers getting more comfortable with wearing masks and abiding by social-distancing guidelines…”