“Trader Makes Massive Bet Treasuries Will Get Slammed After Jobs Report”
January 10, 2024
“…The trade targets a surge in US 10-year yields to as high as 4.15% by Friday’s close of business, or a jump of about 0.15 percentage points from Thursday’s closing level. That would mark the biggest one-day rise in 10-year yields since late March and a further retrenchment for Treasuries, which have had a rocky start to the year after ending 2023 on a winning note following a furious two-month rally…
Friday’s report is expected to show US employers added 175,000 jobs last month, with the so-called whisper number calling for an increase of 185,000 positions. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Economics’ nowcast points to a 283,000 monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls, up from 199,000 in November, and a further drop in the unemployment rate to 3.6% from 3.7% a month earlier…”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trader-makes-massive-bet-treasuries-221500105.html
For reference you can compare this bet with the jobs report:
“U.S. payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, much better than expected“
A followup to the treasures market will show if this bet was on the money or not. I dont follow treasuries so anyone interested would have to find that information from another source. The Jobs report was better than the bet expected so if I had to guess the bet was a big miss.
I reason I linked to this is a large amount of the time the market is moved by rumors. As the saying goes buy the rumor sell the news. Honestly I’m starting to think speculation is more important than outcome at this point.