“Top economist lowers recession risk for 2020, but says hurdles remain”
November 25, 2019
““We do need to get over some of these hurdles that are a problem for business-sector spending of which is both U.S.-China trade concerns as well as things like Brexit and other geopolitical risks,” the firm’s head of U.S. economic research said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
Gapen believes the odds of a contraction are now 20% over the next 12 months — down from his October forecast of 25% to 30%.
“The deceleration in manufacturing seems to be abating. That’s the good news,” said Gapen. “The bad news in that report is the services side of the economy seems a little weaker than expected.”… In any given year, Gapen estimates there’s a 10% chance of a recession…”
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/24/top-economist-lowers-recession-risk-for-2020.html
In my opinion recession fears are a little overblown. In general I see a lot of doom and gloom in many news headlines. For those in the stock market a simple strategy of holding some money back until a recession hits is a good idea. If one hits it could be considered as all stock being on “discount.” I’ve discussed this idea / tactic before. Save a portion of your money and wait for the discount.